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Fulton Findings

Workshop Overview


Day 1 Basic

Weibull analysis overview

23-minute video short course

How to do a Weibull analysis

Interpretation of Good Weibulls

Interpretation of Bad Weibulls - Cusps, dog-legs, curves, t0, Lognormal

Extremely small sample analysis. . .what are the risks?

Suspensions & sample size effects on uncertainty

Predicting failures with and without renewal

Case studies. . .customer usage. . .maintenance planning. . .goodness-of-fit with ccc and the new pve%

Crow-AMSAA reliability growth modeling. . .for tracking development testing and repairable systems maintainability

Weibull Experiments. . .wire data. . .classwork problems and solutions

Day 2 Basic

Experimental wire data distribution analysis

Optimal replacement intervals

Weibull analysis. . .improving accuracy, smaller samples, Weibayes

Weibayes substantiation tests. . .Have we fixed the problem? Zero-failure testing, sudden death tests

PlayTIME with SuperSMITH software. . .hands-on computer experience solving problems. . .students may bring their own data for analysis with the software

Day 3 (Day 1 Advanced)

Maximum likelihood Weibull theory and application

Rank regression (rr) vs. Maximum likelihood Estimation (mle). . .advantages/disadvantages

Alternate types of data . . . inspection and grouped with probit solutions

Interval mle

Confidence intervals

Are two Weibull data sets significantly different?

Additional PlayTIME tutorial work

Dauser shift

PlayTIME with SuperSMITH

Time for all students to analyze their own data and problems

Computer tutorial with typical problems

Day 4 (Day 2 Advanced)

Binomial & Poisson solutions

The exponential related to Poisson and Weibull

Kaplan-Meier survival for warranty analysis

System models - independent modes

Warranty analysis

Crow-AMSAA details

Monte Carlo simulation solutions

Example: The Cliff Walker

Transforming random numbers into real variables, like time to failure

Example: Ssystem simulation with renewal

Case Studies: Reliability, maintainability, safety systems models - dependent modes

PC hands-on simulation

Reliability and maintainability with RAPTOR and MONTE

Students receive copies of simulator software

And/Or time to analyze your data

1 Day Refresher

Failure forecasting (risk analysis)

By part, component, system

A month, a year, 5 years, 10 years ahead

Labor costs forecasting

Spare parts forecasting

Optimal renewal interval new capabilities

Crow-AMSAA . . . modeling updates

Tracking fleets for maintainability

Classic bi-Weibull and YBath solutions

New cost-effective test planning

Inspection data. . .new methods

Monte Carlo research. . .& surprises

Kaplan Meier survival analysis

Inspection data

Warranty analysis

Modified likelihood ratio tests for multiple data sets

The latest SuperSMITH software

Hands-on computer tutorial with your own problems and your own data


FULL Workshops

This type of presentation includes a license for the FULL SuperSMITH(R) software suite for each attendee as part of the class. The software for this class is greatly discounted. For organizations that want to acquire the software to fully enable the workshop graduate, this option is more cost-effective than the DEMO workshop, because purchase of the software separately after the DEMO workshop does not have as much of a discount. Students completing this training are fully empowered to solve design, reliability, testing, manufacturing, quality, warranty, and customer service issues related to measurement variability. The Weibull Engineering Workshop instructor will explain all Weibull Engineering fundamentals along with the multitude of applications. The workshop will cover the type of input measurement data to collect along with data collection recommendations. In addition to in-person instruction and the provided FULL software license, each student receives a copy of the world standard reference Weibull handbook by Dr. Bob Abernethy and also a copy of the PlayTIME(TM) tutorial booklet with over 50 case studies showing input data and step-by-step solution on the computer.

DEMO Workshops

This reduced-cost workshop includes the free DEMO SuperSMITH software (easily downloaded in seconds from the internet) available to each attendee. Purchase of the FULL software after the workshop is available at a modest discount. Students completing the DEMO workshop get the same overview of Weibull Engineering fundamentals and same classroom instruction as above. In addition to in-person instruction and the provided DEMO software, each student receives a copy of the world standard reference Weibull handbook by Dr. Bob Abernethy and access to the free PlayTIME(TM) DEMO tutorial file (.PDF format) with over 50 case studies showing input data and step-by-step solution on the computer. NOTE: The DEMO software has 100% of the FULL software capability but CANNOT be used on customer data without first being saved from a software FULL version. Data entered other than in files previously saved in this way will be altered randomly up and down before analysis. This allows the DEMO to be available free as an internet download. All the data files used for analysis in the DEMO course have been previously saved from the FULL version and are easily imported without altering. Other data entered will be altered before analysis by the DEMO software.

Workshop Selection


A Weibull / Lognormal introduction. Brings the novice up to working level. Covers analysis of good data, messy data, forecasting, optimum replacements, inspections, grouped data, Weibayes, test planning, and reliability growth modeling. Training includes hours of hands-on problem solving with SuperSMITH software to analyze example data found in the PlayTIME Computer Tutorial for SuperSMITH.


 Extends coverage to alternate fitting solutions such as maximum likelihood estimation (mle), distribution comparison, system and mixture solutions, confidence, significant differences, and related models. More time is included for student hands-on problem solving using SuperSMITH. There is additional time for details concerning simulation models or for follow-up consulting on data brought by each student. 


 Our complete seminar features front-to-back treatment of The New Weibull Handbook(c) latest edition. Each attendee receives the handbook and also receives the FULL SuperSMITH(R) software latest version including two afternoons of hands-on computer usage, plus the PlayTIME(TM) tutorial booklet covering every type of problem and every related software option. This workshop is designed to bring the novice up to expert capability. Topics include failure analysis, optimal parts replacement, cost analysis, failure prediction, warranty analysis, system modeling, reliability-growth, alternate fitting solutions, test planning, confidence, and accelerated testing. Chemical & Petro-Chemical Plant, Medical, and every type of commercial product or service. Coverage of the complete New Weibull Handbook(c) by Dr. Bob.


 The four-day workshop includes the FULL workshop above plus either time for student presentations of their own real problems or time for system simulation overview. Analysis of real customer problems allows Wes or Carl and the class to serve as a consulting forum reviewing each problem. The students are asked to bring one or more of their own problems to the workshop. Students get consulting on their real problems and show how they are applying the new techniques learned. Managers are invited. Alternatively, time may be devoted to system simulation tools for building models of any level of complexity regarding reliability, maintainability, safety, spare parts, logistics analysis and warranty-guarantee costs including experience with computer simulation models. the basic workshop for the same people.